Texas Flips Blue: A Conservative Post-Mortem on the 2026 Wave

Written By TNT Staff, Posted on November 4, 2026

Texas did not just wobble on Tuesday. It flipped. The Associated Press called the governor’s race for Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa over three-term Gov. Greg Abbott, making her the state’s first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. Former teacher James Talarico beat Attorney General Ken Paxton for the open U.S. Senate seat, the first Democrat Texas has sent to the Senate since 1988.

With about 94% of the expected vote counted, Hinojosa led 52.8% to 45.7%, and Talarico led 55.1% to 43%. Those are unofficial returns. The Texas Secretary of State will publish the canvass later this month.

Nationally, AP reported Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. AP said voters were driven by “deep frustrations over high prices, the Iran war and concerns over government corruption.”

“I wasn’t on the Ballot”

President Trump’s first response, on Truth Social, was: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” ABC News reported. That is half true. His name was not on the ballot. But he spent the fall asking voters to treat it as if it were, and he backed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff. Paxton then lost a seat Republicans had held for decades.

Conservatives who want to win in 2028 should not take comfort in that post. A post-mortem has to start with what the party promised and did not deliver.

Three promises that did not hold

Election integrity. The SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register, passed the House in February. It then failed in the Senate in June. Majority Leader John Thune said the only way to pass it was to “nuke the legislative filibuster,” and that Republicans were not “anywhere close” to the votes, The Hill reported. You can defend the filibuster on principle. But voters were promised a law, and they did not get one.

The Iran war. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the war cost the Pentagon about $38 billion through Aug. 1, plus $2 billion to $3 billion for each further month. U.S. Central Command put the total at $47.1 billion by mid-October, CBS News reported. Whatever the strategic case, a party that ran against open-ended foreign wars now owns an expensive one, and Congress never declared it.

Cost of living. Republicans won 2024 on prices. Two years later, AP found high prices at the top of voters’ complaints. Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and deficit spending fuels inflation. Neither helps a family buying groceries in San Antonio.

What has to change before 2028

First, nominate candidates who can win general elections, not just primaries. Paxton carried years of scandal into a race Cornyn might have held.

Second, govern the way you campaign. Limited government means spending restraint, not just tax cuts. It means asking Congress before going to war. And it means passing election-integrity laws when you hold the majority, instead of using them as fundraising slogans.

Third, take the message seriously. Texas did not turn socialist overnight. Voters told AP they were angry about prices, the war and corruption. Those are problems a classical-liberal agenda can answer: less spending, sound money, fewer foreign adventures and cleaner government.

Divided government starts in January. Trump still has his veto, and the Founders built the system for exactly this. The next two years are the GOP’s chance to show it learned something on Tuesday night. Otherwise 2028 could look like Texas did last night.

TNT Staff