A Blue Conservative Rebellion is Brewing Against Doug Ford in Southern Ontario

It is hard to label Ontario Premier Doug Ford a “Conservative” in any meaningful way. He leads the Progressive Conservative Party Ontario but there is little conservatism to be found and it barely counts as a political party as policy, candidate selections, and strategy is all increasingly decided by Ford and his inner circle. 

Most Ontario residents would not know but should know, that their local PC candidate is likely someone Ford hand-picked and was not someone elected in a nomination race to see who will best represent Conservative voters in the riding.

On top of corrupt internal management of the PC Party and ideological drift to the left, Ford has become Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s closest ally, collaborating with him on his carbon tax, bloated childcare program, keeping Ontario tightly locked down, and helping the federal government crackdown on the Freedom Convoy protests in Ottawa back in February. 

Ford unlike the majority of Canada’s premiers was happy to assist the federal Liberals in the rollout of the Emergencies Act and turned a blind eye when the federal government started freezing Canadian bank accounts who donated to the GiveSendGo campaign for the Freedom Convoy.

Possibly Ford’s worst misstep over the past two years was his ejection of Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios from the PC caucus for being the only PC MPP to vote against Bill 195 the “Reopening Ontario Act” as she and her husband Jim Karahalios have started the quickly growing New Blue Party of Ontario.

It turns out many Ontarians agree with the Karahalios’ that the Ford PCs are not significantly conservative on any issue, especially when it comes to parental rights and education, as they have not had a hard to recruiting New Blue candidates and EDA board members. 

Despite only Leger including the New Blue Party in polls (Leger mixes in fake parties like the Ontario First Party which makes results inaccurate) it is telling that the support for “Another Party” in other pollsters’ recent Ontario provincial election polling results is surging in specific parts of the province.

Belinda Karahalios’s riding of Cambridge tends to be categorized into the South, Southwest, Southcentral regions of Ontario, depending on which pollster is dividing up ridings, and in those areas “Other” or “Another Party” support has increased multiple times. 

For example, In December of 2020 Mainstreet Research conducted a provincial election poll which found 4 percent of respondents chose “Another Party” when asked who they would vote for in the next election, and only 3.3 percent in Southwestern Ontario and 5 percent in Southcentral Ontario chose that option.

Fast forward to the two provincial election polls Mainstreet Research conducted in 2022, and the overall average percentage for “Another Party” is now 8.55 percent. In Southwestern Ontario, the result was 12.2 percent, and 9.55 percent in Southcentral Ontario.

The large swing for “Other” parties is significant and observable in almost every new poll, no matter which firm is conducting it, and the only party with the infrastructure and reach to be reflective of that polling boost is the New Blue Party. 

Of course, 12.2 percent cannot win an election in any riding in Ontario, but these are regions of dozens of ridings, and that 12.2 percent is likely concentrated even further in Cambridge and neighbouring ridings where New Blue MPP Belinda Karahalios is best known, meaning she is likely very competitively in her riding. 

The New Blue Party has dropping literature and door-knocking around Ontario for months now, and the fact “Other/Another Party” is surging while the next election is getting close, when the opposite tends to occur, shows New Blue is likely to be a strong force in the 2022 provincial election and has the ability to elect MPPs. 

If Doug Ford and the PC Party are able to hold their voter base together enough to survive the next election, they could still be in a position where New Blue Ontario MPPs could be calling the shots in a minority government. Ford may wish that he did not abandon his blue conservative base over the last few years. 

Ontario politics should be interesting to see play out over the next few months.

UPDATE:

In a recent Leger poll the New Blue Party of Ontario tied the Green Party at 5 percent of decided voters.