Trudeau’s Dream of a Majority Fades as the Conservatives Take Lead in the Polls

It is still early on in the election, with 21 days of campaigning left to go and a lot that can change until election day comes, but for now, the Conservatives can feel more comfortable than they did before the election started as they have reversed the pre-election polling the Liberals used to hold over them. 

It was quite unexpected for the Conservatives to open up such a large polling lead over the Liberals seeing as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called this snap election because the Liberals originally had the large leads over the Conservatives just a couple weeks ago.

To put the massive polling shift in perspective; on the day Trudeau called the snap election the Liberals had an 89 percent chance of winning the most seats, and now it is a 50/50 tossup between them and the Conservatives.

Before, if the Liberals did win the most seats, it was a 50/50 on whether the Liberals would get a majority or just a minority and now it looks very unlikely that either party will get a majority government, undermining the entire point of Trudeau calling an election. 

It makes Trudeau’s claim of calling an election to give Canadians a “choice” even more ridiculous if this election results in an electoral stalemate, with just another Liberal minority or Conservative majority. Canadians clearly did not want to make a choice that has decimated the Liberals’ past polling advantage.

As mentioned before in a previous article, it’s not that the Conservatives are gaining in popularity as much as potential Liberal voters have been turned off by Trudeau’s arrogance and hypocrisy. Trudeau cannot fearmonger about COVID-19 for a year and a half and then expect his political base to not see him as a villain when he calls an election while COVID-19 cases are rising, regardless of the actual danger posed by the virus. 

No doubt the polls will tighten once again before election day, as Trudeau attempts to climb his way out of the political hole he dug himself into, but at the moment there isn’t any evidence that Trudeau or the Liberal campaign team has anything significant up their sleeves that would enable them to regain the solid chance they had for a majority government 2 weeks ago.