An Election is Coming – Can Justin Trudeau be Beaten?

After shuffling his cabinet and ordering another 20 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine it looks as if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is trying to lay the groundwork to regain the Liberal parliamentary majority in a snap spring election.  

The Liberals, NDP, and the Conservatives are all currently running ads on social media platforms like Facebook. The Liberals are even in some parts of Canada putting out ads in order to get people to sign up to run as candidates.

The question most Canadians are wondering is; can Justin Trudeau actually be beaten in a spring election?

So far the answer seems to be a definite no unless the polls start to radically shift towards the Conservatives, or the polls are wrong in a significant way. Trudeau seems to be posed to win at least his minority government position back, which may not do much for his popularity as it would have felt like a waste of time. 

It is also quite possible that the Liberals can win their majority back. Trudeau would not seemingly be preparing for an election within the next few months if he thought he had no chance at winning. 

According to the polling aggregator, 338Canada since mid-December the Liberals have been enjoying a lead as large as 6-7 percent and their lowest results were still 3 percent ahead of the Conservatives. 

The reason for the Liberals increasing popularity overtime would be due in large part to their handling of the pandemic. No matter if Trudeau has objectively done a good or bad job dealing with COVID-19 since last March, the public generally grows warmer towards the leader in power in a crisis. 

Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have also seen a slight polling boost which can be attributed in part to the NDP holding up the Liberals minority government, and the perception the NDP is responsible for the high CERB benefits Canadians have been receiving since they are consistently in favour of all social programs. 

At this point, if Erin O’Tool or the Conservatives want a chance at a minority of even a slim chance at a majority government it may be wise for him to carve out a new base in Canada of all the voters who feel the government’s COVID-19 response has been overwrought because there won’t be a way to compete with the level of unrestrained spending the Liberals, NDP, and Greens are willing to promise. 

If the Conservatives run as the party of “Normal” opposing the Liberal/NDP/Green “New Normal” there is a good chance the CPC can pick up a sizeable enough portion of Canadians to at least make some pickups in weak Liberal areas in BC and Ontario. 

An election has yet to be officially called but if things keep trending the same way Canadians will likely be back at the polls in two or three months.