Trudeau’s Polling has Improved, but He is Likely to be the Biggest Loser on Election Day

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been bouncing back in the polls since their first two weeks of the election sitting in a polling slump, but Quebec may complicate Trudeau’s path to getting anything better than another minority government.

The vote projections are indicating another Liberal minority government with a reduction in seats due to gains from the Conservatives and the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois being able to hold their ground.

The Bloc could prove to be the biggest issue for Trudeau who likely assumed most of his seat pick-ups were going to be in his home province, but right now the Liberals are only projected by websites like 338 Canada to get 36 seats on September 20, which is only an increase of 1 seat over the Liberals 2019 performance.  The Bloc isn’t even projected to make many gains but they are holding steady enough to prevent the Liberals from getting much value out of the province.

Although there are some close races between the Liberals and Bloc, half of the seats the Bloc are at risk of losing in closer races are to the Conservatives which doesn’t exactly help the Liberals. If all the tossup races between the Bloc and Liberals went to the Liberals they would still only come away with about 40 to 41 seats which won’t offset the losses in Ontario and British Columbia they are projected to be taking. 

Especially in British Columbia, the Liberals have experienced a heavy drop-off since the beginning of the election. Liberal Vancouver Granville candidate Taleeb Noormohamed being involved in house flipping in a city where sky-high property prices are a systemic problem was likely the biggest turnout to voters in BC.

In Ontario where the Liberals have a projected polling lead of 6 percent over the Conservatives, they are still projected to lose 6 seats if you give the Liberals all the ridings that they are currently projected to be ahead in.

It doesn’t help the Liberals that two of their candidates in Ontario have been forced to drop out due to issues surrounding sexual assault allegations, Maryam Monsef calling the Taliban “our brothers,” and Parl Sec not being able to keep himself from rolling his eyes when the two Micheals in Chinese prison are brought up.

The Liberals may look strong nationally because they are ahead of the Conservatives and the PPC seems to be cutting into their vote, but the Liberals are facing similar challenges from the NDP and the Greens who have surged in certain ridings over the last two weeks.

Even with the Liberals leading in national polls they are still on track to take a net loss in this election; Trudeau may be back in the PMO but it won’t be a comfortable situation with his opposition empowered by gains two elections in a row.

Despite some potential gains in Alberta due to Premier Jason Kenney’s new draconian restrictions and passport program, the Liberals have had too many own-goals in this election and the only voters who are really energized are in the opposition parties so even with a Liberal polling lead, on election day the Liberals will likely be disappointed by the weak turnout.