Are Canada’s Leaders Repeating Their Lockdown Mistakes?

The Canadian Medical Association released a report this week looking at the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 on various treatments. The study looked into various procedures such as knee and hip replacements, as well as key diagnostic procedures such as MRIs and CT scans.

President of the National Association of Physicians, Dr. Ann Collins, warned that Canadians may “very well see a backlog on a backlog if we do not start addressing it, given what we are very possibly looking at with a second wave.”

Earlier this week we saw Alberta bring in new mandatory limits of 15 people for most gatherings in Calgary and Edmonton. 

The province had a record 4,477 active cases on Sunday, 1,440 of which were newly reported on the weekend, and a total of seven new deaths were reported from Friday to Sunday.

Alberta’s chief medical officer Dr. Deena Hinshaw states:

We are following the evidence and implementing a targeted measure that will help reduce transmission and limit the risk of cases growing exponentially in both cities… This 15-person limit is temporary. It will be reassessed after one month and can be lifted if we see our growth rate, or R-value, decline below one, and new case numbers consistently below 100 in each city.

This is a very different scenario than the plan to “flatten the curve” these same experts stressed to Canadians in the early days of the pandemic.

Not just in Alberta but, across the country we saw Canadian provincial governments addressing the second wave of COVID-19 this Tuesday:

• Manitoba’s health minister said that the province’s health system still has capacity and has not yet reached its breaking point. Through an agreement with the Red Cross the province of Manitoba will be bringing in extra contact tracers and is preparing for anything that may come their way.

• Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said that new measures targeted towards bars and nightclubs could be on the horizon after dozens of cases were reportedly linked to such establishments.

• Quebec Premier François Legault defended his government’s implementation of new lockdown measures in the province’s hardest hit communities.

In the last seven days the country saw hospitals treat an average of 1010 patients daily, of which about 20% were admitted to ICU, with approximately 23 deaths per day. Dr. Tam is worried that this increase, from the 6 death average Canadians saw 6 weeks ago, could just be the tip of this new spike.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a recent press conference that, “this sucks, it really, really does… It’s going to be a tough winter. It’s easy for us to want to throw up our hands… Nobody wanted 2020 to be this way, but we do get to control how bad it gets by all of us doing our part.”

Trudeau dealt Canadians another blow in his announcement that the holiday season could be in jeopardy stating, “Unless we’re really, really, careful, there may not be the kinds of family gatherings we want to have at Christmas” he said.

For Canadians who have been following the recommendations the government has given us, including giving up all celebrations since the first ask on Easter weekend, it appears as though there is no end in sight and many are losing confidence and motivation to keep up with these measures.

Half of Canadians (48 percent) say they’re getting tired of following public health recommendations and rules regarding COVID-19, a new Ipsos poll commissioned by Global News finds. Although most Canadians, 93 percent, say they’re doing their best to abide by the public health recommendations and rules regarding COVID-19.

Furthermore the study finds that the wearing of protective masks has gone up significantly: in July only 71 percent of respondents said they wore a mask to visit indoor public places, whereas 92 percent of respondents now say they abide by these recommendations.

Despite this data, and the new restrictions brought in on October 10th, this Sunday Ontario just reported more than 1,000 new daily cases for the first time. The restrictions included closing indoor dining, gyms and cinemas for the most affected districts in the province.

These restrictions have had a significant impact on our society as many issues we were facing prior to the pandemic have continued with lesser emphasis on remediation due to the pandemic causing them to surge.

Canada is still fighting an opioid crisis which has gotten significantly worse as the isolation and desperation set in during the pandemic. The Public Health Agency of Canada warned that local opioid supplies have only grown more toxic and dangerous due to border and travel restrictions.

In B.C a little over 1200 people have died of overdoses so far in 2020, compared to only 983 for all of 2019, and as the colder months approach experts expect to only see an uptick in numbers for this year. For September the death toll had doubled compared to this same month last year.

B.C, though, is not the only province struggling with the opioid crisis. 

Data from Ontario show that the number of deaths, both confirmed and probable, from opioid related causes had increased almost 50 percent. Whereas Alberta hit a new three month record, surpassing the previous 211 deaths in a three month period in 2018, with 302 deaths from April to June 2020.

PHAC concluded that:

Alberta, British Columbia. Ontario and Quebec all showed increased numbers of deaths compared to the same time period over the past 5 years. Some of these additional deaths are directly related to COVID-19, however contributions from other causes not directly linked to COVID-19 cannot be excluded.

Although thousands of Canadians have died from COVID-19, nearly 80 percent of them came from long-term care homes and have on average more than one comorbidity. The rise in mental health and especially addiction issues tend to disproportionately affect younger Canadians.

Now researchers who published a new study in the Journal of Hospital Medicine have warned us that just because we’ve seen a significant drop in the death rate for COVID-19 does not mean we should stop worrying about the rise in cases. The team of researchers analyzed data of approximately 5,000 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in New York City from March to June and found that the mortality rate dropped by 18 percent.

A U.K. study, with similar results, was conducted looking at 21,000 patients hospitalized in England. Results showed that since the peak of the pandemic the death rate has decreased by 20 points. 

These drops occur across racial and age groups, people with or without underlying conditions. 

The study concluded that the reason behind the fact that fewer people are dying from the virus could be due to a better understanding on the part of the doctors regarding prevention and treatment of serious symptoms as well as medical advancements that have been developed through the course of this pandemic.

On the other hand hospitals have seen a drop in walk-in patients and surgeries have been cancelled or postponed due to capacity restraints.

As this pandemic moves forward, and we are forced into more restrictions time and time again one can see how countries like Sweden, who have escaped major lockdowns, may have had the right approach. Not only are they faring much better than us right now, fighting off the pandemic, but they will not see the same mental health and addiction issues these restrictions have only exacerbated in Canada. 

The true consequences of the lockdowns will not be fully understood for years as the data regarding issues of addiction, mental health, and delays in diagnosis and treatment of other illnesses continue to come in.