Trudeau And The Liberals’ Polling Numbers Slump Hard As Poilievre Gains Popularity

For a long while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party felt that they could rest easy despite being behind the Conservative Party for nearly a year in average polling numbers. This is because the Liberals could always point to “preferred prime minister” polling to show that a plurality of Canadians still preferred Trudeau over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

Today, not only has the Liberal Party’s polling slumped hard over the last couple of months but now even Trudeau has fallen behind Poilievre as Canadians’ top choice to lead the country.

It was always a foolish contention to point at the “preferred prime minister” numbers seeing as Poilievre over his few several months as the Conservative Party leader was still trying to make more than half of the country recognize his name. As Poilievre’s name recognition has increased he quickly gained, and now has overtaken, Trudeau, and it all took less than a year with Poilievre as the CPC leader. 

According to the poll conducted by Mainstreet Research, 45 percent of respondents had a moderately or strongly favourable view of Pierre Poilievre and 44 percent had a moderately or strongly negative view of him. This is compared to Justin Trudeau who had a moderate to strongly favourable rating of 40 percent and a 56 percent moderate to strongly negative rating. 

On top of that bad news for Trudeau, 53 percent of Canadians also believe that the Chinese government interfered in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections, with only 14 percent not believing the Chinese government interfered. 

Pairing those two statistics with multiple polls from Mainstreet, Angus Reid, EKOS, Nanos, and Abacus Data that all put the Conservatives up over the Liberals by anywhere from 3 to 7 percent, there are effectively no stats pulling in favour of Trudeau these days. 

Although Justin Trudeau has been seemingly able to slip out from under any scandal he has faced, maybe even including the CCP election interference scandal, the problem for him now is that he has become a tired figure in the suburban Vancouver and Ontario ridings he needs to stay in power. 

Those previously Liberal-voting constituents did not flip on him due to any particular scandal or policy, they are just tired of the constant fight for Trudeau to stay in office the same way some Conservative voters grew tired of Stephen Harper in office.