Can Derek Sloan Win his Reelection? – Yes Absolutely

Whenever a Member of Parliament is removed from a political party, it’s generally assumed they won’t be winning reelection as often people will just vote for the party label with little care about who the party representative happens to be. 

In some exceptional cases, however, a party-less candidate is able to overcome the odds and win due to sheer force of personality and popularity. 

This was the main difference between why Jody Wilson-Raybould was able to win her reelection but not Jane Philpott. Raybould was able to turn herself into a symbol of standing up to corruption in the Liberal Party in the eyes of voters, but Philpott just became another victim of politics.

Former CPC member and current independent Federal MP for Hastings-Lexington and Addington Derek Sloan seems to be finding himself in the Raybould camp. 

Similarly to Raybould’s highly publicized stand against Prime Minister Trudeau for his attempting to corrupt the justice system for SNC Lavalin while Raybould was Justice Minister, Sloan found himself in a situation where he exposed how badly the Conservative Party has been overtaken by red Tories through his removal in response to a fabricated scandal, motivated by O’Toole and his team wanting to purge Sloan for organizing grassroots conservatives to get involved in the 2021 CPC convention.

As a result of this, the keen observer of Canadian politics should be looking at Sloan’s reelection effort as a referendum as to whether the constituents of Hastings-Lexington and Addington approve of the Conservative Party or not, in the context of the party blatantly smearing the reputation of their MP and remove his influence within the party.

Like Raybould, Sloan will not be relying just on taking former Conservative voters with him in order to win his reelection, but he could expect to attract non-Conservative voters as well who see voting for Sloan as a symbolic way of signaling their dislike for Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, and the corruption within the party. 

The fact Jody Wilson-Raybould is still projected as having a 48 percent chance of winning her riding once again as an independent candidate should give Sloan confidence going into his first reelection effort as an independent.

It should also be noted that Sloan’s riding is overwhelmingly religious with 72.5 percent being Protestant or Catholic so the soil in his riding is perfect for him as a candidate who actively stands up for religious liberty and social conservatism. 

When The National Telegraph asked Sloan about the sentiment in his riding among those who may have voted Liberal in the past Sloan said, “I seem to have a lot of support. Many people in my riding are not die-hard partisans and their primary concern is someone representing their local interests.” 

Sloan is also evidently quite a bit more organized than the vast majority of MPs, who are often caught flat-footed after being removed from their party caucuses, seeing as he already formed his own PAC, the Sloan Political Action Coalition (SPAC).

When asked about his current fundraising with SPAC, Sloan said:

We’ve only sent out two emails because we don’t want to overwhelm people with donation requests, but it’s been going very well. There’s been an outpouring of support.

Another advantage Sloan has over most other independent MPs running for reelection is that he, despite being relatively new to politics, has proven himself already as a skilled politician. 

To even become the Conservative nominee in HLA back in 2018, Sloan, while not being a well-known face in the riding was able to beat three different opponents, all decently well known in the area..

In the 2019 election Sloan was also able to beat the Liberal incumbent to the riding Mike Bossio while only spending, according to Elections Canada, $36,369 compared to Bossio’s $109,021 (not counting spending on pre-canvassing). 

No doubt if an election was held in 2021, Sloan, like Raybould, will find no shortage of willing donors to his campaign and he has already proved he can win on a tight budget.

During the 2020 CPC leadership race, too, Sloan was able to outperform his polling numbers by 4 to 5 percent, finishing with 15.64 percent of the overall vote, despite media portraying it as a leadership race purely between Erin O’Toole and Peter MacKay, and Sloan having only half to a third as much funds compared to his opponents. 

Sloan’s current social media reach is also not something to overlook either. Despite having fewer overall likes and posting less often, Sloan’s Facebook page boasts a higher engagement rate than Erin O’Toole’s. 

The Conservative Party of course will attempt to run a candidate against Sloan, but he wasn’t too worried about the prospect when asked, stating that:

There will be someone, but remember that the bulk of Conservative members in my riding voted for me in the leadership. Many local Conservatives are really upset with O’Toole kicking me out.

It will be interesting to see whether or not the Conservatives even attempt to campaign hard against Sloan. If he has become too popular in HLA it may not make financial sense for the CPC to even bother a costly campaign against Sloan. Not only that, but if the CPC goes all-in against Sloan they risk not only losing, but potentially splitting the vote enough to let a Liberal win. 

What also may assist Sloan in his reelection effort is his membership on the Liberty Coalition he formed with the PPC leader Maxime Bernier who likely due to their similarities and warm relations won’t have a PPC candidate attempt to contest Sloan’s riding. 

None of this is to say Sloan is guaranteed to win back his seat in parliament, but unlike the vast majority of independent candidates, Sloan has a ton going for him, both in terms of support and resources needed to run an effective campaign and to win.